Dunning-Kruger

‘Men are four.

He who knows not, and knows not he knows not, he is a fool—shun him;

he who knows not, and knows he knows not, he is simple—teach him;

he who knows, and knows not he knows, he is asleep—wake him;

he who knows, and knows he knows, he is wise—follow him.'

Isabel Lady Burton 1831-1896

An Arab Proverb quoted in

The Life of Captain Sir Richard F. Burton [1]

The tendency of the relatively unlearned to overestimate their ability is something that has been known for a long time.  

• In 1711, Alexander Pope poetically observed this when he wrote: “A little learning is a dangerous thing…” [2]   

• 160 years later, Charles Darwin chimed in on the topic when he noted: “…ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge.” [3]   

• Another one and a half centuries later, Justin Kruger and David Dunning published their research on the effects of cognitive bias where people with intrinsically low ability in an area of expertise often vastly overvalue their capability and knowledge. [4]   

Although the authors did not use this label in their original paper, it has become popularly known as the Dunning-Kruger Effect.

All the Students are Above Average

To some extent, we all suffer from the “above average effect.”  Football players, business managers, high school students, (and you and I) are united in our belief that we are above average in many of our areas of endeavor.  It is well known that most of us consider ourselves to be above average drivers.  Apart from our—sometimes innate—hubris there are many reasons for this perception.  Society and our fellows admire and reward competence and knowledge—openly owning one’s ineptitude and ignorance is unlikely to merit praise in most circles. 

Most of us really do have significant skills in some areas, so when we are confronted with subjects about which we know little, it is hard not to assume we would have similar levels of competence in these too.  This capability misperception is not a façade, however.  Kruger and Dunning’s research shows that it is a genuine—albeit mistaken—internal assessment and belief that can be maintained and defended even when presented with clear evidence to the contrary.

FOOTNOTES

[1] From the gutenberg.org HTML version of The Life of Captain Sir Richard F. Burton p.549

[2] Pope, Alexander. “An Essay on Criticism” Published 1711

[3] Darwin, Charles. “The Descent of Man and Selection in Relation to Sex” Published 1871

[4] Kruger, Justin; Dunning, David (1999). "Unskilled and Unaware of It: How Difficulties in Recognizing One's Own Incompetence Lead to Inflated Self-Assessments". Journal of Personality and Social Psychology. 77 (6): 1121–1134.